CHABOT WAS OUTSPENT IN THE PRIMARY, 11-1, IN A FIELD OF 7-CANDIDATES YET WON BY 10-POINTS
Despite the district’s Democrat voter registration advantage of 6%, the Democrat voters in the June Primary out performed the Republicans by just 553 votes (23,953 DEM votes vs. 23,400 REP votes) – just a 1% actual Dem vote turn-out advantage. Additionally, 6,658 Decline to State/No Party Preference, and 1,404 Independent voteswere cast. Three of the four Democrats had multi-million dollar campaigns (Aguilar, Reyes, Baca with Independent Expenditure). Chabot spent just under $150K.
The district’s No Party Preference (NPP) electorate tends to vote for the Republican candidate, making up aresounding 21% of CA-31 voters. Republicans make up 33.7%, Democrats at 40.4%, Independent (also GOP leaning)at 3.2%, and all others combined (Libertarian, Peace/Freedom, Green) are at 1% (May 2014 ROV County of SB).Research shows that the NPP electorate votes for the Republican candidate over a Democrat candidate.
Although Rancho Cucamonga has a 4% Republican voter advantage, the combined Republican candidate percentage far exceeded that by taking in 17% (58% REP vs 41% DEM).
Chabot’s campaign boasted the largest volunteer base of any race in the state; over 17K voter-door knocks! Thecampaign distributed over 1,500 yard signs. No other candidate in the race had such a large “Get out the Vote”effort of directly speaking with voters, door to door.