May 262013
 

You’ve seen our snippet about the Ryan Schohr vs Jimmy Gallagher race in AD-03. I don’t know much about either candidate but it is safe to say that we are leaning towards Schohr at this point.

CD-03 – our intel tells us that Dan Logue is the Republican Front-Runner by a mile. It does not look like Kim Dolbow-Vann is running again, nor is Rick Tubbs. There have been pernicious rumors about some sort of back-room deal cut to set Dan up to run in this district, they are absurd. Dan Logue is unlikely to be endorsed by either Jim Nielsen or Doug LaMalfa until after the primary. CD-03 includes All of Colusa, Yolo, Yuba, Sutter and a gerrymandered slice of Sac, Lake, Glenn and about a third of Solano County. Yolo and Solano are the population center and the district favors the socialist John Garamendi by about 10%.

We expect Dan Logue to announce against Garamendi sometime in the next two months.

CD-07 – this one is interesting, it is infested by Fraud Doctor Ami Bera. Bera defeated Lungren by a slim margin due largely to Lungren’s campaign, not due to Bera’s brilliance.

The registration is effectively even. The combination of that and the 2014 election being an allegedly different dynamic means that this seat could return to the good guys.

This is why newly elected state senator Ted Gaines went to Washington DC recently. The joke is on the voters of SD-01. While we are skeptical that Gaines will get traction, he has been one of the luckiest men in politics in the North State. The Dave Gilliard Moderate Machine is pushing him – McCarthy Acolyte Doug LaMalfa and Conservative until he gets to Sacramento State Senator Jim Nielsen is as well. In an ironic twist, should Gaines run, he’d likely be positioned as the moderate in the race!

Which leaves Doug Ose. We don’t think he runs, We don’t think he will be able to drop another 3-5million in to a congressional run. It does not look like the insiders want a retread (and Gaines isn’t?). We think Doug Ose would be extremely competitive if he ran – apparently, he would have to move to be in the district like Ted Gaines would have to move again for the second time in as many years.

… and Elizabeth Emken, 2012 US Senate Nominee moved to Fair Oaks. We like Elizabeth a lot.

The 800 Pound Gorilla that everyone knows is there (including the fraud doctor) is Igor Birman. Birman is a Russian Jew who fled Soviet Communism to come to American Socialism. Unlike Ose, Gaines or Emken – Igor is just over 30, is a fresh face AND can raise the money necessary to win. In case his name is not familiar – he is Iconic Conservative Congressman Tom McClintock’s Chief of Staff.

Guess who gets McClintock’s army and endorsement? (Hint, it isn’t Gaines)

However, Republicans are Republicans so one thing that is clear – there will be a money-draining primary complete with all the pleasantries – and if Gilliard is involved, racist mailers are likely as well.

Finally – we have a Secretary of State Candidate, Pete Peterson. Pete Peterson was profiled by the Sacramento Bee. It appears that Peterson is the lone Republican in a crowded field of Democrats. I don’t expect that to last as Republicans can’t seem to help themselves to understand strategy in a state that is 28% Republican.

Peterson is the executive director of Pepperdine University’s Davenport Institute. I’d lay odds he will be able to raise a few bucks. With a limit of 5700 per calendar yer / 6800 per cycle, he’s got some work to do.

More coming soon.

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