Survey USA. Lampooned as ‘leaning Republican’.
Yet, survey USA accurately predicted the national kool-aid drink of 2008. (the Obamunism tsunami)
Here’s the summary:
Carly 47 – Lt. Col. Boxer 42
Meg 44 – Moonbeam 43
Any-Twosome Newsome 42 Abel Maldonado 41
Whitman went down 2 and Brown up 4 between this and the last poll.
I believe that Whitman’s difference in the polling is that her stances on social issues – being those of a Democrat – are alienating the base of the GOP to a degree. Perhaps a strong immigration stance and stance in favor of Prop 23 would help Whitman pull even with Carly?
That’s if Whitman is concerned about those voters – after all, Prop 23, that the California GOP endorsed unanimously is mysteriously off the CRP’s website.
Despite Whitman’s apparent separation from some of her base – Carly is suffering no such separation.
As to those that lampoon Survey USA – take a look at the following from Talking Points Memo:
But here’s the thing. SurveyUSA had a really good record in the 2008 cycle. That’s not just my recollection. Nate Silver’s mega-number crunch suggested the same. So are they picking something up which other pollsters aren’t? Given their record in the past cycle, it’s not something I’m inclined to rule out.
Bottom Line: It sucks to be Barbara Boxer.