Another Day, Another Poll. Hail Mary Mother of Grace, Chuck DeVore is in 3rd Place! (again)
Party’s over, pour the Tea down the drain.
Consider this: Boxer brought Obama to California and has raised $1.5 Million in one day as a result. This is a record and also means that Boxer / the Socialists are freaked out nervous about Carly.
He bought two spots on the season finale of 24. This means he ‘ministered’ to roughly 4 Million Californians. If you factor only those here legally, reduce to 3.5 Million. Then of those, the number actually registered to vote, call it 2 Million.
When you factor the 62% that have no opinion of Chuck in the Latest Poll – that reduces the number to about 800,000.
Given the 10 seconds or less attention span of TV watchers and the usual activities that occur in households during Commercial breaks – I will give Chuck about 25,000 more votes as a result of those two spots.
25,000 votes is roughly .1% of the Expected Republican electorate.
When you add in Chuck’s I am Rambo video and the campaign email today touting a different poll with a small sample size… you have a recipe for therapy appointments.
And now the PPP poll comes out today. Guess what? Carly 41 Campbell 21 Other 20% and the rest undecided.
That same poll has Poizner going down in flames.
Take a look at this snippet from the PPP folks: The entire PPP summary is linked here.
It’s hard to build name recognition in a state as big and expensive as California, and Fiorina is the only one of the Senate candidates who’s known to more than half of Republican primary voters. 46% have a favorable opinion of her to 17% with a negative one and 37% having no opinion. By comparison 54% of voters have no opinion about Campbell to 28% with a positive one and 19% with an unfavorable one, and DeVore is even less well known with 62% having no opinion about him to 24% with a favorable one and 14% with a negative one.
Their conclusion is also pretty clear:
There’s been a large shift in the state of this race over the last few weeks so it seems plausible the electorate is fluid enough that Fiorina could still lose. But with a 20 point lead and opposition to her split among two candidates she looks like the overwhelming favorite at this point.
The only question I have at this point is – will “Other” beat Tom Campbell by election day?